Many of us may have a doubt or a curiosity that what kind of bias lead to loss of investments or may be you are looking for the different kinds or types of biases that an investors may go make while making a decision. To understand this type of question you need to understand Behavioral Finance which we will be discussing in this article.
Behavioural Finance
Behavioural
finance is field of finance that deals with psychology based theories which
explains about stock market anomalies such as rise and fall in the stock price.
In
simple words we can say that how securities price fluctuates independent of the
any corporate actions. The role of behavioural finance is assist market analyst
and investors to understand the price movements in the absence of the changes
on the part of company.
In
Behavioural Finance it is assumed that the information structure and
distinctiveness of market participants influences the individuals investment
decisions and also the market outcomes
To understand well lets look into an
example
Lets
consider a situation where a lawsuit is formulated against a X company and the
investors remember that when this had happened earlier the price of the company
had down as a result investors sold their investors which led to decline in the
value of the security’s value.
At
the same time the investors in the other companies of same industry feared that
the similar lawsuit can be brought against other companies in the industry.
Thus thinking this they sold their holdings as a result of which the securities
of that particular industry got declined.
This
scenario came in picture because none of the companies in that industry took action
which resulted in reduced their intrinsic value of the securities.
Key Concepts or Biases in Behavioural Finance
§ Anchoring
§ Mental Accounting
§ Confirmation and Hind Bias
§ Gambler’s Fallacy
§ Herd Behaviour
§ Over reaction and availability bias
§ Overconfidence
§ Denial Bias
§ Representative Bias
§ Framing Bias
Now
let us try to understand this one by one
§ Anchoring :
Anchoring in behavioural finance refers to the one’s ideas and
opinions should be based on the appropriate facts and figure in order to be
considered as valid.
§ Mental Accounting:
Mental Accounting refers to the tendency people to separate
accounts based on variety of subjective criteria like the source of the money
and intent for each account.
§ Confirmation and Hind Bias:
Confirmation in behavioural finance refers to a preconceived
opinions of an individual. We have often saw that people pay attention to those
opinions that support their opinions rather than rational one where it become
highly difficult for a individual to discuss about it in rational manner.
While Hind Bias refers to the bias where a person believes that the
commencement of certain event in past which has took place was completely
predictable and would been understood but the reality is that the event cannot
be practically predicted.
§ Gambler’s Fallacy:
We all know that in investments certain things are being predicted
by the investors which is based on probability. But lack of understanding can
often lead to incorrect assumptions and predictions about the commencement of a
particular event. These incorrect assumptions and predictions are referred to
as Gambler’s Fallacy.
§ Herd Behaviour:
If we careful observe the individuals there are individuals who try
to mimic or follow someone else or a large group actions without thinking
whether the individual or group have made their decisions rational or
irrational.
§ Over reaction and availability bias:
We all know the importance of information in the stock market. This
bias comes into picture when an individual or a large of investors over react
which some information is comes to market and all the investors would start
making their decisions based on the new information which is out as a result of
which the security’s price start fluctuating because the new information made
more than the real impact which gives rise to the bias referred as Overreaction
and Availability bias.
§ Overconfidence:
This is the error that takes place when we overestimate or amplify
an individual to perform certain particular tasks.
§ Denial Bias:
This bias comes into picture when an investors starts denying the
certain facts because of some reasons like the investment was held by investor
for long period of time or other. The constant denying of information leads to
the bias referred as denial bias.
§ Representative Bias :
This is the bias that where two or more similar events takes place
and the individuals thinks that they are highly co-related with each other
which also confuses to the individuals. But in reality they aren’t connected to
each other. Such a bias in behavioural finance is referred to as Representative
Bias.
§ Framing Bias:
This is the bias where an individual makes the decisions based on
how the information presented even opposing the facts itself. If the same facts
are presented in two different manners then to different decisions are made by
the same individual. Such a bias is referred as Framing Bias.
Approaches in Behavioural Finance for Decision Making
Different approaches recommended in
Behavioural Finance for decision making
§ Reflexive : It refers the invoice or a gut feeling of the investor
belief. This is a default option.
§ Reflective: This is a logical and practically based method that
deals with deep thinking about a particular investment.
The bias that take places is because of the of the reflexive
approach of the investors which means the more the decisions are based on the
reflexive approach the more the chances of the biases. While if the investors
follows reflective approach more then, the chances of bias eventually comes
down because of more rational decisions.
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